James Carville was approached by anxious New Yorkers on the Upper East Side seeking guidance on the outcome of the November election, but he had nothing to offer as the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump was deadlocked. Polls were showing a razor-thin margin in key battleground states and nationally, with no experts willing to predict the outcome.
The tight race has been likened to the close 2000 election between Bush and Gore, with potential for post-election legal battles similar to that election. The 2020 election was closest since the Bush v. Gore showdown, and the rise of big data has created a perception of certainty in elections despite close margins that have been seen in recent elections.
The Trump era has brought uncertainty back to the election process after his unexpected victory in 2016. Polls correctly predicted Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, but the margin in Trump’s favor was closer than expected. The 2022 midterms saw Democrats outperforming expectations, showing that the electorate can easily swing in either direction due to stable uncertainty and the effect of the Electoral College.
While polls show a close race, it is still uncertain how the final results will turn out, with the possibility of a decisive victory for either candidate. Carville believes that the Democrats have a chance of winning, but the outcome remains uncertain. The stability of the polls in the closing weeks of the election suggests that the race could go either way, leading to heightened anxiety among voters and analysts alike.
Photo credit
www.nbcnews.com