President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office witnessed the worst stock market performance for a new president since the 1970s, with the S&P 500 dropping 7.9% from January 20 to April 25. This decline is the second steepest since Richard Nixon’s presidency when the index fell 9.9% in 1973 amidst economic turmoil leading to a recession. Historical data shows that average S&P 500 gains in the first 100 days of any presidency typically hover around 2.1% from 1944 to 2020.
Initially, following Trump’s election victory, the S&P 500 hit record highs, spurred by optimism about anticipated tax cuts and deregulation, with a 3.7% rise from Election Day to Inauguration Day. However, this momentum quickly waned as Trump’s administration prioritized other campaign promises, notably a contentious trade strategy that raised concerns about inflation and potential recession. In April, the S&P 500 suffered a sharp 10% drop in just two days, briefly entering bear market territory after Trump’s tariff announcements. Although he later moderated his stance, granting a 90-day pause for renegotiations, investor anxiety lingered.
Analysts like Jeffrey Hirsch remain cautious, suggesting that the market may not have reached its nadir yet, indicating ongoing uncertainty in Washington. By the end of the period, the S&P 500 had lost all gains made since the election, closing at 5,525.21, compared to a previous high of 6,144.15. If the index rallies in the closing days of this period, it could improve Trump’s standing against the third worst start recorded by George W. Bush in 2001.
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